Hybrid Cars & Alt Fuels

A recent survey of some 200 auto industry execs found a wide majority -- 92% -- were optimistic about the future of the North American auto industry, saying the sector is either somewhat or much better off than it was just last year. The survey was conducted by Booz & Co. But opinions about the future of hybrid and electric vehicles within the sector were decidedly more mixed.

The government's willingness to subsidize alternative power trains appears pivotal. If government support continues, 58% of the auto leaders expected hybrid and electric vehicles to reach a 10% or better market share, with a full 18% of respondents projecting that share could surpass 30% by 2020. Take those government subsidies away and 50% of the execs surveyed expected electric, hybrid and other alternatively field vehicles to struggle to reach 5% marketshare, although 13% still anticipated market share to reach or surpass the 30% mark.

But are these industry leaders putting too much emphasis on government subsidies? What about fuel prices? What about potential future green fuel programs and mandates? Consumer preference and return buyers? What about dozens of other factors? One can make the argument that these auto execs are being a bit short-sighted. On the other hand, you can't ignore the fact that not only are they predicting the market share, they hold many of the cards for shaping it. Hanging so much on future government subsidies could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It's hard to argue that Toyota isn't the king among hybrid automakers and recent numbers from the Japanese automaker certainly bear that out. As of April 30, 2012, Toyota states that its global sales of full hybrid vehicles has surpassed the four million unit mark.

Certainly, the hybrid business has been a good venture for Toyota. Worldwide, Toyota has 19 full hybrid passenger vehicle models on the market, covering approximately 80 countries. In 2012, hybrid vehicles are making up about 15% of Toyota's total global vehicle sales.

Launched in December 1997 in Japan and hitting the world market in 2000, the Prius is probably the most well-known hybrid car around the world and Toyota has taken advantage of its popularity by building an entire family of this popular green vehicle. It was with the second generation Prius launch that Toyota began using its full hybrid technology across other vehicle classes, from SUVs to luxury sedans. It was the third, and current, generation Prius launch in mid-2009 that continued to boost sales and later helped Toyota reach the three million vehicle mark in February 2011. And Toyota seems to show no sign that it is going to slow the growth of its Prius family with both a seven-seat Prius+ and the Prius Plug-in Hybrid sitting in the wings for launch later this year.

Love your hybrid or EV for its stealth way of getting you around town? That lack of engine rumble that set hybrids and EVs apart from their gas-dependent cousins may soon be a thing of the past.

The National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration this summer will start developing guidelines that require a vehicle to emit a minimum level of noise. Why is the government using our hard-earned tax dollars to contribute to noise pollution? For safety sake. There's evidence that at lower speeds, hybrid and electric cars cause too many accidents. In fact, some industry analysts have found that at speeds less than 35 mph, there is a 37 percent greater chance that a hybrid or electric vehicle will hit a pedestrian and a whopping 66 percent greater chance they will hit a cyclist.

Lack of noise, it seems, causes lack of vision and attentiveness among hybrid and EV drivers.

Several automakers have already begun experimenting with artificial noise for their hybrid and EV line ups. By 2017, every hybrid and electric car will need a noisemaker installed to be legal. It doesn't appear to stipulate what kind of noise. Some creative options are already coming to mind. I wonder if automakers will come up with a way to give drivers a choice of how they want their car to sound on a particular drive. One day, you may feel like sounding like a Ferrari, the next day you may feel more like a Hummer. What noise would you like your new hybrid or EV to make? Sports car engine? Your favorite song? Roaring lion?

The U.S. Navy's much-publicized growing green fleet could be dead in the water if Republican lawmakers have their way. According to reports this week from the National Defense Industrial Association, the House Armed Services Committee has voted to prohibit the Defense Department from buying what it terms as "pricey" alternative fuels. The proposed measure would also repeal part of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the catalyst for gaining the nation's fuel independence from petroleum.

Really, GOP? I understand you want to look thrifty, or at least selectively so, but turning back the clock on this kind of progress seems irresponsible. One amendment would ban the Pentagon from buying alternative fuels if they cost more than traditional fossil fuels. But how is that measured? Are all long-term costs considered or just initial price?

The other proposal would exempt the Defense Department from legislation that requires that the government purchase only alternative fuels that are less polluting than conventional fuels. Thanks for trying to assure the Defense Department won't have to be environmentally responsible when it comes to fuel choice. That's certainly a good roadmap for the future.

The amendments were offered by Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) and are acknowledged by alternative energy experts as having the potential to stymie the progress the Defense Department has made in its exploration and use of alternative fuels.

It's always interesting to see how gas price trends impact consumer interest in hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles. Is there less pain at the pump? Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration would indicate that's the case as diesel and gasoline prices dropped for the fifth straight week. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to drift downward as well, a trend some are attributing to concerns over Greece's economy, and that of Europe in general.

Despite the upcoming holiday weekend, the EIA reports that gasoline prices dropped by an average of 3.6 cents this week to $3.754 a gallon, which is down more than 20 cents from where prices were just a year ago. The exception is the West Coast, which actually saw a jump of 12 cents compared to last week's report.

According to the EIA's weekly update, diesel fuel has reached the lowest average price since February, at $4.004 a gallon. This level is down an average of 5.7 cents from this same week in 2011.

Algae biofuel developer OriginOil, Inc. has just announced a new partnership with Algasol Renewables for collaboration on the creation of an integrated algae growth and harvesting system that will capitalize on Algaol's patented system for growing algae in floating bags. The companies believe the process is a lot more efficient than more traditional cultivation methods.

OriginOil's technology contribution will be its special harvesting system. The company specializes in converting algae into a crude oil style product. The two companies are hoping that by coming together, they will achieve an all-new cost breakthrough that will allow algae biofuel to compete on a cost basis with petroleum.

The floating bags are a type of photobioreactor and can be used in the ocean or in saltwater ponds created on land. The idea behind the floating feature is that it allows for optimal light exposure, giving a big boost to productivity, yet avoiding high temperatures and excess salinity that often occur with more traditional solar growth system. To date, Algasol has obtained patents in 70 countries for its floating technology.

OriginOil is also working with the Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory. The project involves implementation of a downstream fuel conversion process that that company plans to eventually integrate into its work with Algasol.

Earlier this week, Ford announced the first of its dealers who have been certified to sell the 2012 Ford Focus Electric. Roll out of the Focus Electric is with much fanfare, as the vehicle has been certified by the EPA to offer 10 MPGe in the city and 105 MPGe combined, rolling past the Nissan Leaf by 6 MPGe.

Dealers had to go through a number of hoops before being named one of the 67 dealers currently anticipating the arrival of the Focus to their showrooms later this spring. Original availability is limited to dealers in California, New York and New Jersey with roll out nationwide by the end of this year. This is the first EV to be marketed by Ford.

To request certification, dealership had to install two charging stations, agree to have at least one Focus Electric available at all times for demo and event purpose, and participate in a Ford Go Green Dealer Onsite Facility Assessment. In addition, at least 80 percent of sales and service management-level positions must meet specific electric vehicle training certification requirements.

If anyone thought algae biofuel research had reached its limits, they certainly didn't tell investors willing to front $144 million to Sapphire Energy, one of the leading producers of algae-based fuels.

The company, recognized as one of the top algae biofuel companies in the nation, will add this third round of investment dollars to its existing stronghold, for a total of $300 million. Sapphire has stated it plans to use the latest round of investment dollars to help it reach its goal of producing 1.5 million gallons of algae fuel by 2014, a feat it hopes to reach via expansion of its Green Crude Farm in New Mexico.

Since the beginning of time--or at least the beginning of the marketing of hybrid vehicles--drivers everywhere have been pondering whether or not the typically higher price of hybrid vehicles is worth it.

If you find yourself in that camp, you may want to consider a few of the following points. First off, there is a good reason for the added cost. Your hybrid vehicles comes with some extra baggage, namely an electric propulsion motor, high voltage battery pack, and a power control module. It comes to reason all this added equipment is going to come with an added price tag.

You probably are already looking at the difference in price and calculating just how long it will take you to recoup the added cost of your hybrid through reduced fuel costs. That's a good first step, but if you stop there, you're losing some accuracy to your analysis. Like the lower cost of maintenance. Despite all those scary stories you've been fed about battery replacement costs, battery technology enables batteries to last the life of the car and some automakers are offering warranties to ensure you aren't hit with big battery costs mid-way through your car's lifespan. Just as significant is that with a hybrid, you can actually expect your maintenance expenses to be lower since the hybrid is able to make use of regenerative braking which reduces wear and tear on your braking system.

The ever-increasing price at the pump is the likely catalyst to a record 52,000 hybrid and electric cars moving off the showroom floor last month. That's a big jump from the 34,000 sold just one year ago and the two categories now combine to make up 3.64 percent of the total U.S. auto market, a new record according to Ward's AutoInfoBank.

No doubt rising gas prices have a lot to do with increasing consumer interest in green cars, but new vehicle offerings like the Prius c and a hybrid version of Toyota's popular Camry as well as Ford's electric version of its popular Focus are helping to make a mark, giving EVs and hybrids their biggest share yet of the U.S. auto market, trumping the former record safe of 3.56 set back in July 2009 during the Cash for Clunkers program. The year got off to a slower start with hybrids and electrics making up only 2.38 percent of new car sales.