Wednesday May 23, 2012
A recent survey of some 200 auto industry execs found a wide majority -- 92% -- were optimistic about the future of the North American auto industry, saying the sector is either somewhat or much better off than it was just last year. The survey was conducted by Booz & Co. But opinions about the future of hybrid and electric vehicles within the sector were decidedly more mixed.
The government's willingness to subsidize alternative power trains appears pivotal. If government support continues, 58% of the auto leaders expected hybrid and electric vehicles to reach a 10% or better market share, with a full 18% of respondents projecting that share could surpass 30% by 2020. Take those government subsidies away and 50% of the execs surveyed expected electric, hybrid and other alternatively field vehicles to struggle to reach 5% marketshare, although 13% still anticipated market share to reach or surpass the 30% mark.
But are these industry leaders putting too much emphasis on government subsidies? What about fuel prices? What about potential future green fuel programs and mandates? Consumer preference and return buyers? What about dozens of other factors? One can make the argument that these auto execs are being a bit short-sighted. On the other hand, you can't ignore the fact that not only are they predicting the market share, they hold many of the cards for shaping it. Hanging so much on future government subsidies could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Wednesday May 23, 2012
It's hard to argue that Toyota isn't the king among hybrid automakers and recent numbers from the Japanese automaker certainly bear that out. As of April 30, 2012, Toyota states that its global sales of full hybrid vehicles has surpassed the four million unit mark.
Certainly, the hybrid business has been a good venture for Toyota. Worldwide, Toyota has 19 full hybrid passenger vehicle models on the market, covering approximately 80 countries. In 2012, hybrid vehicles are making up about 15% of Toyota's total global vehicle sales.
Launched in December 1997 in Japan and hitting the world market in 2000, the Prius is probably the most well-known hybrid car around the world and Toyota has taken advantage of its popularity by building an entire family of this popular green vehicle. It was with the second generation Prius launch that Toyota began using its full hybrid technology across other vehicle classes, from SUVs to luxury sedans. It was the third, and current, generation Prius launch in mid-2009 that continued to boost sales and later helped Toyota reach the three million vehicle mark in February 2011. And Toyota seems to show no sign that it is going to slow the growth of its Prius family with both a seven-seat Prius+ and the Prius Plug-in Hybrid sitting in the wings for launch later this year.
Wednesday May 23, 2012
Love your hybrid or EV for its stealth way of getting you around town? That lack of engine rumble that set hybrids and EVs apart from their gas-dependent cousins may soon be a thing of the past.
The National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration this summer will start developing guidelines that require a vehicle to emit a minimum level of noise. Why is the government using our hard-earned tax dollars to contribute to noise pollution? For safety sake. There's evidence that at lower speeds, hybrid and electric cars cause too many accidents. In fact, some industry analysts have found that at speeds less than 35 mph, there is a 37 percent greater chance that a hybrid or electric vehicle will hit a pedestrian and a whopping 66 percent greater chance they will hit a cyclist.
Lack of noise, it seems, causes lack of vision and attentiveness among hybrid and EV drivers.
Several automakers have already begun experimenting with artificial noise for their hybrid and EV line ups. By 2017, every hybrid and electric car will need a noisemaker installed to be legal. It doesn't appear to stipulate what kind of noise. Some creative options are already coming to mind. I wonder if automakers will come up with a way to give drivers a choice of how they want their car to sound on a particular drive. One day, you may feel like sounding like a Ferrari, the next day you may feel more like a Hummer. What noise would you like your new hybrid or EV to make? Sports car engine? Your favorite song? Roaring lion?
Wednesday May 16, 2012
The U.S. Navy's much-publicized growing green fleet could be dead in the water if Republican lawmakers have their way. According to reports this week from the National Defense Industrial Association, the House Armed Services Committee has voted to prohibit the Defense Department from buying what it terms as "pricey" alternative fuels. The proposed measure would also repeal part of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the catalyst for gaining the nation's fuel independence from petroleum.
Really, GOP? I understand you want to look thrifty, or at least selectively so, but turning back the clock on this kind of progress seems irresponsible. One amendment would ban the Pentagon from buying alternative fuels if they cost more than traditional fossil fuels. But how is that measured? Are all long-term costs considered or just initial price?
The other proposal would exempt the Defense Department from legislation that requires that the government purchase only alternative fuels that are less polluting than conventional fuels. Thanks for trying to assure the Defense Department won't have to be environmentally responsible when it comes to fuel choice. That's certainly a good roadmap for the future.
The amendments were offered by Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) and are acknowledged by alternative energy experts as having the potential to stymie the progress the Defense Department has made in its exploration and use of alternative fuels.